Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
0x5e9800b7925bf81e86dfc271551d9b91d388f993b7715df8253ba081cd99d4c1 · closes Sep 13, 2026 · 152 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 901.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 63.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 950% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.63 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 901% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
47 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x5e9800b7925bf81e86dfc271551d9b91d388f993b7715df8253ba081cd99d4c1 yes 100