Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

This market prices an 11-13 magnitude 7.0+ earthquake outcome at just 28¢, implying a historically low frequency of roughly 1.8-2.2 events per month globally, well below the long-term average of 15-16 annually. The extreme 363.8% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with modest $228k daily volume and $5.3M open interest suggests thin liquidity and potentially mispriced tail risk, particularly given the 4-point uptick over 7 days that may reflect recent seismic activity reassessment. With 258 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the low cliff risk index (3) indicates relatively stable pricing, though the 1¢ spread provides minimal arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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