What is the current probability for "Will Kawhi Leonard be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 30, 2026. 61 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kawhi Leonard be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 105.3% and 3380.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Kawhi Leonard be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Kawhi Leonard be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing June 30, 2026. This market is pricing in near-certainty (98%) that Kawhi Leonard will make All-Pro 2nd Team next season, yet shows extreme illiquidity with only $47 in 24-hour volume and a concerning 11¢ spread.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 85/98¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $520.95·Closes Jun 30, 2026·61d remaining

KXNBA2NDTEAM-26-KLEO

7-day price107 snapshots · 5 regime

88¢85¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 26

Analysis

13d ago

This market is pricing in near-certainty (98%) that Kawhi Leonard will make All-Pro 2nd Team next season, yet shows extreme illiquidity with only $47 in 24-hour volume and a concerning 11¢ spread. The dramatic price surge from 53¢ to 86¢ over seven days suggests recent positive sentiment shift, possibly tied to Kawhi's injury recovery or trade rumors, but the asymmetric implied yields (79.7% vs. 3005.6%) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicate this pricing may be unstable given the thin market depth and 75 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

If Kawhi Leonard is selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 105.3%

IY (No) 3380.1%

Adj IY 1690%

CRI 6

Overround 3.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	105.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3380.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1690%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

13¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 9:36:07 AM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 9:23:14 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA2NDTEAM-26-KLEO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →