What is the current probability for "Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Championship?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 29, 2028. 800 days remaining.

Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Championship?

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Championship?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing June 29, 2028. The New York Knicks are priced at a modest 14% probability to win the 2026 Eastern Conference Championship, offering a striking 278.7% implied yield for Yes backers despite solid $865K open interest and tight 1¢ spreads.

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13¢

Bid/Ask 12/13¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $54,303.88·OI $1,043,401.49·Closes Jun 29, 2028·800d remaining

KXNBAEAST-26-NYK

7-day price76 snapshots · 126 regime

21¢12¢ current

Apr 138¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The New York Knicks are priced at a modest 14% probability to win the 2026 Eastern Conference Championship, offering a striking 278.7% implied yield for Yes backers despite solid $865K open interest and tight 1¢ spreads. The market has declined 1¢ over seven days and carries a moderate 6 Cliff Risk Index, suggesting some concentration in positions, though the 805-day timeframe provides substantial runway for fundamental shifts in the team's roster or performance trajectory.

Resolution rules

If New York wins the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 334.7%

IY (No) 6.2%

Adj IY 307%

CRI 7

RV 839%

VR 5.75

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	334.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	307%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	839%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.75	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:30:31 PM

Observability directEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAEAST-26-NYK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →