Will San Antonio win 4-2 in the Portland vs San Antonio 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will San Antonio win 4-2 in the Portland vs San Antonio 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 7241% implied yield on Yes contracts at 16¢, suggesting the 16% probability significantly underestimates San Antonio's chances of winning 4-2 specifically in a best-of-seven series.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 7241% implied yield on Yes contracts at 16¢, suggesting the 16% probability significantly underestimates San Antonio's chances of winning 4-2 specifically in a best-of-seven series. The unusually high yield combined with modest $1,373.89 daily volume and low $1,786.89 open interest indicates thin liquidity that may be driving the distortion, though the tight 2¢ spread suggests some market-maker presence. The recent price recovery from 11¢ to 14¢ over seven days and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 warrant caution, as the contract expires in just 31 days and resolution depends on a precise series outcome rather than a simple win/loss.
Resolution rules
If the series score is San Antonio wins 4-2 in the Portland vs San Antonio 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBASERIESSCORE-26PORSASR1-SAS42 yes 100