Will Baylor win the College Football Big 12 Championship?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Baylor win the College Football Big 12 Championship?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 2, 2027. Baylor's championship odds have nearly doubled over the past week (from 2¢ to 3¢ to current 5¢), suggesting meaningful shift in market sentiment despite minimal volume of just $4 in 24 hours and thin $1,320 open interest.
Analysis
Baylor's championship odds have nearly doubled over the past week (from 2¢ to 3¢ to current 5¢), suggesting meaningful shift in market sentiment despite minimal volume of just $4 in 24 hours and thin $1,320 open interest. The extreme 4528% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the deep discount pricing, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution about potential sharp repricing as we approach the January 2027 resolution. With 261 days to expiry and a 1¢ spread, this remains a highly illiquid micro-cap market where small trades could drive outsized price swings.
Resolution rules
If Baylor wins the 2026 College Football Big 12 Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNCAAFB12-26-BAY yes 100