Will Baylor win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
174 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Will Kansas St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Kansas St.
KXNCAAFB12-26-KSU
Cluster 2
Will Texas Tech win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Will Texas Tech win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFB12-26-TTU
Cluster 3
Will Houston win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Will Houston win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Houston
KXNCAAFB12-26-HOU
Cluster 4
Will BYU win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Will BYU win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: BYU
KXNCAAFB12-26-BYU
Cluster 5
Will Utah win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Will Utah win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Utah
KXNCAAFB12-26-UTAH
Cluster 6
Will Oklahoma St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Will Oklahoma St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Oklahoma St.
KXNCAAFB12-26-OKST
Analysis
This 11% probability reflects the likelihood that Baylor wins the Big 12 Conference championship during the 2026 football season. The relatively low probability suggests Baylor faces competitive headwinds within a conference that includes stronger programs. Key drivers of this probability include Baylor's recent competitive positioning relative to other Big 12 teams, roster strength, coaching stability, and injury circumstances entering the season. The main uncertainty will resolve through the conference tournament or final standings in late November/early December 2026, when actual on-field performance determines the champion. Market participants are pricing in meaningful competition from other conference programs, reflected in the contrast between this 11% figure and probabilities for playoff championship scenarios involving top-tier programs.
- ›Baylor's recent Big 12 performance record and win-loss trajectory in conference play over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Roster composition and returning talent, particularly at quarterback and defensive positions, compared to other Big 12 contenders
- ›Conference strength distribution—the number and caliber of other programs competing for the championship affects Baylor's path
- ›Coaching staff continuity and any recent changes that could impact team performance in 2026
- ›Head-to-head scheduling dynamics within the Big 12, including whether Baylor faces stronger conference opponents in critical late-season matchups
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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