Will Indiana go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Indiana go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing December 28, 2026. The 19¢ price reflects a historically difficult feat—no team has gone undefeated in the regular season since Alabama in 2020—making the 608.8% implied yield on the Yes side an outlier that likely reflects illiquidity rather than genuine mispricing, especially given zero 24-hour volume despite $36,899 open interest.
Analysis
The 19¢ price reflects a historically difficult feat—no team has gone undefeated in the regular season since Alabama in 2020—making the 608.8% implied yield on the Yes side an outlier that likely reflects illiquidity rather than genuine mispricing, especially given zero 24-hour volume despite $36,899 open interest. The 3¢ spread is relatively tight for such a low-probability event, but the substantial gap between Yes yield (608.8%) and No yield (33.5%) suggests the market may be overweighting tail risk or suffering from thin order books. With 256 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this contract has time for Indiana's actual performance to materially shift sentiment, though the Cliff Risk Index of 4 indicates moderate concentration risk among current position holders.
Resolution rules
If Indiana goes undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-IND yes 100