Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
11 contracts
Closes
Dec 28, 2026
157 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-ND
Cluster 2
Will Ohio St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Ohio St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-OSU
Cluster 3
Will LSU go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will LSU go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: LSU
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-LSU
Cluster 4
Will Utah go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Utah go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Utah
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-UTAH
Cluster 5
Will Penn St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Penn St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Penn St.
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-PSU
Cluster 6
Will Texas go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Texas go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Texas
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-TEX
Cluster 7
Will Miami (FL) go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Miami (FL) go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-MIA
Cluster 8
Will Texas Tech go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Texas Tech go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-TTU
Cluster 9
Will Alabama go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Alabama go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Alabama
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-ALA
Cluster 10
Will Indiana go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Indiana go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Indiana
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-IND
Cluster 11
Will Iowa go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Iowa go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Iowa
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-IOWA
Analysis
This contract reflects the estimated probability that Notre Dame completes the 2026 college football regular season without a loss. At 12%, the market implies roughly a 1-in-8 chance of an undefeated regular season. The current probability reflects Notre Dame's historical baseline as a top program alongside the difficulty of navigating a full regular season without defeat—most years, no major program achieves this feat. The probability would move based on Notre Dame's performance in early-season games (September through October), which would signal team quality and resilience. The regular season concludes in late November 2026, at which point the contract resolves based on the final record. Undefeated seasons require consistent execution, injury avoidance, and favorable matchups; any single loss eliminates this outcome entirely.
- ›Notre Dame's actual win-loss record through November 2026 determines the binary outcome; a single regular season loss makes the undefeated outcome impossible
- ›Strength of schedule in 2026 relative to team quality; ranked opponents and road games present higher loss probability than lower-tier matchups
- ›Early-season performance through September and October provides the clearest signal of team capability and likely regular season trajectory
- ›Injury rate among key players, particularly quarterback and defensive starters, directly impacts win probability across remaining games
- ›Historical baseline: undefeated regular seasons occur rarely (typically 0-2 per year across ~130 FBS teams), establishing a naturally low probability ceiling
What moved the line
- Jul 18Miami (FL)↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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