Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract reflects the estimated probability that Notre Dame completes the 2026 college football regular season without a loss. At 12%, the market implies roughly a 1-in-8 chance of an undefeated regular season. The current probability reflects Notre Dame's historical baseline as a top program alongside the difficulty of navigating a full regular season without defeat—most years, no major program achieves this feat. The probability would move based on Notre Dame's performance in early-season games (September through October), which would signal team quality and resilience. The regular season concludes in late November 2026, at which point the contract resolves based on the final record. Undefeated seasons require consistent execution, injury avoidance, and favorable matchups; any single loss eliminates this outcome entirely.

• ›Notre Dame's actual win-loss record through November 2026 determines the binary outcome; a single regular season loss makes the undefeated outcome impossible
• ›Strength of schedule in 2026 relative to team quality; ranked opponents and road games present higher loss probability than lower-tier matchups
• ›Early-season performance through September and October provides the clearest signal of team capability and likely regular season trajectory
• ›Injury rate among key players, particularly quarterback and defensive starters, directly impacts win probability across remaining games
• ›Historical baseline: undefeated regular seasons occur rarely (typically 0-2 per year across ~130 FBS teams), establishing a naturally low probability ceiling

What moved the line

• Jul 18Miami (FL)↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds