Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
26h ago
24h volume
$7K
12 contracts
Closes
Dec 28, 2026
154 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Georgia go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Georgia go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Georgia
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-UGA
Cluster 2
Will Texas Tech go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Texas Tech go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-TTU
Cluster 3
Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-ND
Cluster 4
Will Ohio St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Ohio St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-OSU
Cluster 5
Will Miami (FL) go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Miami (FL) go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-MIA
Cluster 6
Will Oregon go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Oregon go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Oregon
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-ORE
Cluster 7
Will Indiana go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Indiana go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Indiana
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-IND
Cluster 8
Will Texas go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Texas go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Texas
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-TEX
Cluster 9
Will LSU go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will LSU go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: LSU
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-LSU
Cluster 10
Will Texas A&M go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Texas A&M go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Texas A&M
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-TXAM
Cluster 11
Will Alabama go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Alabama go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Alabama
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-ALA
Cluster 12
Will Penn St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season
Will Penn St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Penn St.
KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-PSU
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance Notre Dame completes a full regular season without any losses in 2026. The 13% estimate sits between several peer programs, with Texas trading at 6% and Georgia at 13%, suggesting moderate skepticism about any team running the table. Undefeated seasons depend primarily on roster talent and depth relative to schedule strength—Notre Dame's spring recruiting outcomes and transfer portal additions will determine offensive firepower and defensive consistency. The season begins in late August 2026, making preseason performance in August scrimmages and early-season matchups the critical data points that will sharpen this probability significantly. Current trading volume is minimal, indicating limited market attention to this specific contract ahead of the season's start.
- ›Notre Dame's strength of schedule in 2026, particularly ranked non-conference opponents and conference slate difficulty
- ›Quarterback performance and offensive line continuity from previous season
- ›Defensive secondary depth and pass-rush capability relative to opponents' offensive firepower
- ›Historical baseline: fewer than 10 FBS teams have gone undefeated in any season since 2000, with only three doing so in the last decade
- ›Early-season performance against top-20 competition in August-September will provide direct evidence of team quality versus projection models
What moved the line
- Jul 25Miami (FL)↓7pp23→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 24Notre Dame↑4pp31→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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