What is the current probability for "Siena vs Merrimack Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Siena vs Merrimack Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 45772.6% and 126.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Siena vs Merrimack Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Siena vs Merrimack Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Siena vs Merrimack Winner?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026.

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7¢mid

Bid/Ask 5/8¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 6, 2026·15d remaining

KXNCAAMLAXGAME-26APR22SIEMC-MC

7-day price17 snapshots · 1 regime

7¢5¢ current

Apr 202¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

If Merrimack is the winner in the Siena vs Merrimack Men's College Lacrosse game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45772.6%

IY (No) 126.8%

Adj IY 45773%

CRI 19

RV 10483%

VR 3.89

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	45772.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	126.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	45773%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	10483%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.89	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 4:33:56 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 4:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAAMLAXGAME-26APR22SIEMC-MC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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