When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. This illiquid market with just $92 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows a 53% probability for BLA submission by end-2026, implying Beam has roughly 7.5 months to file for this gene therapy candidate.
Analysis
This illiquid market with just $92 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows a 53% probability for BLA submission by end-2026, implying Beam has roughly 7.5 months to file for this gene therapy candidate. The 10¢ spread and elevated implied yields (147% for Yes, 173% for No) reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine uncertainty, while the flat price action over seven days and neutral regime suggest limited new information flow on the program's timeline. With a Cliff Risk Index of 1, there's minimal tail risk, making this a relatively straightforward binary on Beam's clinical/regulatory execution pace.
Resolution rules
If Beam Therapeutics Inc. submits a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26DEC01 yes 100