When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA
Leader sits at 65% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
before April 2027
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
before 2027
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$8
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
284 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before December
KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26DEC01
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before 2027
KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-27JAN01
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before April 2027
KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-27APR01
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before September
KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26SEP01
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before October
KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26OCT01
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before November
KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26NOV01
Analysis
This 66% probability reflects market expectations that Beam Therapeutics will submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for risto-cel, a gene-editing therapy for a blood disorder, to the FDA by a specific deadline. The current level balances clinical trial progress and regulatory timelines against typical delays in manufacturing scale-up and FDA interactions for novel therapies. Key drivers include whether ongoing Phase 3 trial data meets efficacy and safety endpoints, manufacturing readiness for commercial production, and any pre-submission meetings with the FDA that signal timeline confidence. The main catalyst will be Beam's next earnings call or investor presentation, where management typically provides updated BLA submission guidance. Contract pricing shows meaningful disagreement about whether submission occurs before December versus earlier, suggesting uncertainty around near-term trial readouts and regulatory feedback.
- ›Phase 3 clinical trial enrollment status and interim efficacy/safety data—delays in patient recruitment or adverse events would reduce submission probability
- ›Manufacturing scale-up progress for risto-cel production capacity, as commercial manufacturing readiness is a stated prerequisite for BLA filing
- ›Pre-BLA meeting outcomes with FDA that clarify regulatory requirements and identify any deficiencies that could delay submission
- ›Beam's publicly stated BLA submission timeline from most recent earnings guidance and investor communications
- ›Competitive pressure from COMPASS Pathways' psilocybin program, which shows market interest in novel psychiatric/neurological therapies and may affect Beam's priority
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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