When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 69% probability of BLA submission by April 2027, but the extreme 243.7% implied yield on the No side suggests significant underpricing of rejection risk—likely reflecting thin liquidity ($500 open interest, zero 24h volume) rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 69% probability of BLA submission by April 2027, but the extreme 243.7% implied yield on the No side suggests significant underpricing of rejection risk—likely reflecting thin liquidity ($500 open interest, zero 24h volume) rather than genuine conviction. The 164% realized volatility and 2.43 vol ratio indicate this is a highly uncertain binary outcome, with the 1.5 info arrivals per hour suggesting clinical trial updates could drive sharp repricing before the 350-day expiry.
Resolution rules
If Beam Therapeutics Inc. submits a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-27APR01 yes 100