When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?

Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and zero open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal.

██████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

64¢mid

Bid/Ask 59/69¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jan 1, 2027·247d remaining

KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-27JAN01

Analysis

12d ago

This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and zero open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal. The extreme implied yields (97.7% for Yes, 202.3% for No) reflect the illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, and the 10¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract. With 260 days to expiry and minimal trading activity, this market lacks sufficient depth to provide actionable insights on Beam's BLA submission timeline for risto-cel.

Resolution rules

If Beam Therapeutics Inc. submits a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 102.6%

IY (No) 212.4%

Adj IY 106%

CRI 1

Overround 1.7%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	102.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	212.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	106%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 9:38:13 AM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 9:23:26 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-27JAN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →