When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market shows minimal liquidity with just $210 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 46¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows minimal liquidity with just $210 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 46¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 288.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the thin order book rather than genuine market consensus, while the 9¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty. With 168 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the modest 3¢ price uptick over seven days suggests limited recent conviction, though the low cliff risk index (1) indicates no imminent catalysts that would dramatically shift probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submits a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26OCT01 yes 100