When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA
Leader sits at 81% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
before April 2027
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
67¢
before December
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
222 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA
When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before September
KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26SEP01
When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before 2027
KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-27JAN01
When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before April 2027
KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-27APR01
When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before October
KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26OCT01
When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before November
KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26NOV01
When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before December
KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26DEC01
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Intellia Therapeutics will submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for lonvo-z, its gene-editing therapy, to the FDA by a specific date. The 69% probability suggests traders view submission as more likely than not, though meaningful uncertainty remains. The estimate is shaped by Intellia's development timeline, clinical trial results, and manufacturing readiness for this CRISPR-based treatment. Upcoming catalysts include phase 2 trial data releases, company earnings calls disclosing regulatory strategy, and any public statements about submission timelines. The gap between the leading contract (69%) and runner-up (65%) indicates traders are closely split on near-term timing, suggesting that incremental news about trial enrollment, efficacy signals, or regulatory feedback could move the probability meaningfully in either direction.
- ›Lonvo-z phase 2 clinical trial enrollment progress and interim data readout dates, which determine whether Intellia has sufficient evidence for BLA submission
- ›Prior FDA feedback on lonvo-z development pathway; any complete response letters or additional study requirements would delay submission
- ›Intellia's manufacturing scale-up status and ability to support commercial supply, a mandatory BLA component
- ›Competitive landscape with other gene-editing therapies advancing—regulatory priorities and review timelines may affect Intellia's submission strategy
- ›Company guidance in earnings calls or investor conferences explicitly addressing BLA submission timeline expectations
What moved the line
- Aug 17before November↓39pp53→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19before November↑30pp12→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19before October↑23pp11→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17before October↓14pp34→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21before November↑11pp45→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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