What will be Auston Matthews's next team?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that What will be Auston Matthews's next team?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1146.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 30.4% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of Matthews joining the Ducks—though the thin $78.74 open interest and wide 14¢ spread indicate low liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1146.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 30.4% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of Matthews joining the Ducks—though the thin $78.74 open interest and wide 14¢ spread indicate low liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency. The market has declined 2¢ over seven days despite nearly two years until expiration, and the modest $18.5 daily volume suggests limited conviction among traders. With a Cliff Risk Index of 6 and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative niche market where the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether the pricing reflects genuine edge or simply illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If Auston Matthews's next team is the Anaheim Ducks before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-ANA yes 100