What will be Auston Matthews's next team
Leader sits at 80% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Columbus Blue Jackets
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$405
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
126 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will be Auston Matthews's next team
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-TOR
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Washington Capitals
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-WSH
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Minnesota Wild
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-MIN
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Vegas Golden Knights
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-VGK
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Calgary Flames
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-CGY
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Dallas Stars
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-DAL
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: San Jose Sharks
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-SJ
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Pittsburgh Penguins
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-PIT
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Philadelphia Flyers
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-PHI
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: New Jersey Devils
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-NJD
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Los Angeles Kings
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-LA
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Florida Panthers
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-FLA
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Detroit Red Wings
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-DET
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Colorado Avalanche
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-COL
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Chicago Blackhawks
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-CHI
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Columbus Blue Jackets
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-CBJ
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Carolina Hurricanes
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-CAR
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Buffalo Sabres
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-BUF
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Boston Bruins
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-BOS
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Anaheim Ducks
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-ANA
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Auston Matthews will sign with the Chicago Blackhawks as his next NHL team. The 51% probability reflects market participants' assessment of Chicago's positioning relative to other potential destinations. The level is primarily driven by two factors: Chicago's known salary cap flexibility and apparent willingness to pursue elite forwards, and Matthews's uncertain free agency timeline and stated preferences. The contract's resolution depends on Matthews's next team move, which will be determined when he either signs a new contract with Toronto, becomes an unrestricted free agent (currently under contract through 2024-25), or is traded. This prediction will crystallize once Matthews's employment situation changes, likely during an offseason period or trade deadline window.
- ›Matthews remains under contract with Toronto through 2024-25 season; his availability status is the primary determinant of whether he reaches free agency
- ›Chicago has demonstrated significant salary cap space and recent investment in star-level talent, making them a credible landing spot if Matthews becomes available
- ›Competing contracts show Toronto retention at 48% probability, indicating meaningful uncertainty about whether Matthews stays with his current team
- ›Trading volume on this contract is relatively low ($250 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market conviction and potentially incomplete information about Matthews's preferences
- ›Resolution depends on external events (trade deadline actions, free agency window timing, or contract negotiations) rather than performance metrics
What moved the line
- Jun 28Dallas Stars↓46pp51→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23San Jose Sharks↑37pp15→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25San Jose Sharks↓36pp52→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Columbus Blue Jackets↑24pp8→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Carolina Hurricanes↓23pp51→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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