What will be Auston Matthews's next team?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that What will be Auston Matthews's next team?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows a dramatic 29-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Matthews's next team as the Kings at just 15¢ versus Polymarket's 44¢—suggesting significant disagreement on either his trade probability or timeline.
Analysis
This market shows a dramatic 29-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Matthews's next team as the Kings at just 15¢ versus Polymarket's 44¢—suggesting significant disagreement on either his trade probability or timeline. The 1057% implied yield on the Yes side is extreme but reflects the low base rate and illiquidity ($71.43 daily volume), making the spread vulnerable to sharp repricing if trade rumors surface. With 196 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a liquid market, and the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional momentum despite the recent 1-cent uptick.
Also on polymarket at 33¢(Δ -18¢)
Resolution rules
If Auston Matthews's next team is the Los Angeles Kings before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-LA yes 100