Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 25, 2027. Las Vegas is priced at an extremely depressed 9¢ despite the Raiders' legitimate roster improvements and remaining 284 days until resolution, generating an outsized 1710% implied yield on Yes contracts that suggests significant mispricing or extreme risk aversion.
Analysis
Las Vegas is priced at an extremely depressed 9¢ despite the Raiders' legitimate roster improvements and remaining 284 days until resolution, generating an outsized 1710% implied yield on Yes contracts that suggests significant mispricing or extreme risk aversion. The 4257% realized volatility and 5.53 vol ratio indicate this market experiences wild swings, yet the modest $889.4 daily volume and $36,970 open interest reveal thin liquidity that may be exacerbating the price distortion. The recent 40% move from 5¢ to 7¢ over seven days combined with a neutral regime and 0.8 information arrivals per hour suggest the market is gradually repricing upward as new data emerges, though the 2¢ spread remains wide relative to the contract value.
Resolution rules
If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LV yes 100