Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$311
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
211 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Los Angeles C
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LAC
Cluster 2
Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division
Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Las Vegas
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LV
Cluster 3
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC
Cluster 4
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Denver
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN
Analysis
This contract predicts a 25% chance that the Los Angeles Chargers will win the AFC West division in the 2026 NFL season. The probability reflects the competitive landscape of a division that includes established contenders like Kansas City and Las Vegas. Key factors affecting this estimate include the Chargers' quarterback situation and roster composition, injuries to star players, and how the division's other teams perform during training camp and the preseason. The main resolution point will be the final NFL standings at the end of the 2026 regular season in early 2027, though meaningful indicators will emerge during the first few weeks of play in September 2026.
- ›Chargers' quarterback performance and injury status heading into the 2026 season
- ›Relative strength of Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders rosters compared to Los Angeles
- ›Division win-loss record disparities that could emerge in early September 2026 games
- ›Trade or free agency moves by any AFC West team between now and September that materially shift competitive balance
- ›Historical divisional parity patterns—how often the Chargers have won the AFC West in recent years
What moved the line
- Jun 21Denver↑7pp27→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Denver↓5pp34→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Denver↓3pp32→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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