SimpleFunctions
4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 25, 2027 · 211d

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

24%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

24%

4 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$311

4 contracts

Closes

Jan 25, 2027

211 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 31% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 31% on 2026-06-28
Aggregate of 4 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 4 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division

1 contract$158

Cluster 2

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division

1 contract$67

Cluster 3

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division

1 contract$52

Cluster 4

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division

1 contract$34

Analysis

This contract predicts a 25% chance that the Los Angeles Chargers will win the AFC West division in the 2026 NFL season. The probability reflects the competitive landscape of a division that includes established contenders like Kansas City and Las Vegas. Key factors affecting this estimate include the Chargers' quarterback situation and roster composition, injuries to star players, and how the division's other teams perform during training camp and the preseason. The main resolution point will be the final NFL standings at the end of the 2026 regular season in early 2027, though meaningful indicators will emerge during the first few weeks of play in September 2026.

  • Chargers' quarterback performance and injury status heading into the 2026 season
  • Relative strength of Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders rosters compared to Los Angeles
  • Division win-loss record disparities that could emerge in early September 2026 games
  • Trade or free agency moves by any AFC West team between now and September that materially shift competitive balance
  • Historical divisional parity patterns—how often the Chargers have won the AFC West in recent years

What moved the line

  • Jun 21Denver7pp2734¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22Denver5pp3429¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 26Denver3pp3229¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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