Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing January 25, 2027. Baltimore is priced at a substantial 75¢ with an unusually high implied yield of 57.8% for the Yes side, suggesting the market may be undervaluing a strong playoff contender or reflecting genuine uncertainty about their 2026-27 season performance.

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70¢
Bid/Ask 71/75¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $9·OI $210·Closes Jan 25, 2027·279d remaining
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BAL
7-day price23 snapshots · 2 regime
71¢71¢ current
Apr 968¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Baltimore is priced at a substantial 75¢ with an unusually high implied yield of 57.8% for the Yes side, suggesting the market may be undervaluing a strong playoff contender or reflecting genuine uncertainty about their 2026-27 season performance. The No side's 286.5% implied yield is extreme relative to the 75% probability, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—confirmed by near-zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest. With 284 days until expiry and a tight 4¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to be reliable for serious position-taking, though the neutral regime and minimal recent price movement (68¢ to 69¢) suggest stable sentiment despite the structural imbalances.

Resolution rules

If Baltimore is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 53.5%
IY (No) 320.6%
Adj IY 160%
CRI 2
Overround 13.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)53.5%
IY (No)320.6%
Adj IY160%
CRI2
Overround13.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:39:37 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BAL yes 100

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