Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
214 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will New York” vs “Will Los Angeles”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles
Cluster 3
Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Minnesota
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-MIN
Cluster 4
Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Atlanta
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-ATL
Cluster 5
Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Cincinnati
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-CIN
Cluster 6
Will Chicago be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Chicago be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Chicago
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-CHI
Cluster 7
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Las Vegas
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LV
Cluster 8
Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Baltimore
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BAL
Cluster 9
Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Dallas
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DAL
Cluster 10
Will Detroit be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Detroit be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Detroit
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DET
Cluster 11
Will Buffalo be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Buffalo be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Buffalo
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BUF
Cluster 12
Will New England be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will New England be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: New England
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NE
Cluster 13
Will Carolina be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Carolina be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Carolina
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-CAR
Cluster 14
Will Pittsburgh be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Pittsburgh be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Pittsburgh
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-PIT
Cluster 15
Will Kansas City be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Kansas City be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Kansas City
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-KC
Cluster 16
Will Philadelphia be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Philadelphia be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Philadelphia
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-PHI
Cluster 17
Will Houston be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Houston be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Houston
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-HOU
Cluster 18
Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Indianapolis
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-IND
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Minnesota has roughly even odds of making the NFL playoffs in the 2026-27 season. The Vikings' postseason chances depend primarily on their win-loss record this fall and whether they can compete in what appears to be a competitive NFC landscape. Key drivers include quarterback performance and health, the strength of their division rivals, and roster composition heading into the season. The resolution of this contract will come after the regular season concludes in early 2027, when playoff seeding is officially determined. Until then, week-to-week performance during the 2026 NFL season will be the primary signal affecting market expectations.
- ›Minnesota's 2025 regular season record and current roster composition relative to NFC playoff contenders
- ›Quarterback health and performance, particularly if key defensive or offensive contributors are available through the season
- ›Competitive strength of the NFC North division, especially relative to Green Bay and Detroit performance
- ›Win-loss trajectory through the 2026 season, with specific attention to games in weeks 13-18 when playoff positioning typically clarifies
- ›Comparison to other teams' playoff odds, particularly teams priced between 10¢ and 31¢ like New York Giants, Carolina, and Las Vegas
What moved the line
- Jun 22Minnesota↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Minnesota↓4pp42→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23New York J↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Las Vegas↓3pp19→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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