SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 25, 2027 · 168d

Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

39%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

39%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$18K

20 contracts

Closes

Jan 25, 2027

168 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 55% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 55% on 2026-08-10
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

19 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will New York” vs “Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will New York

2 contracts$4K

Cluster 2

Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$4K

Cluster 3

Will Cleveland be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$2K

Cluster 4

Will Philadelphia be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$2K

Cluster 5

Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$1K

Cluster 6

Will Washington be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$938

Cluster 7

Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$819

Cluster 8

Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$811

Cluster 9

Will Arizona be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$802

Cluster 10

Will New Orleans be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$444

Cluster 11

Will Green Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$306

Cluster 12

Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$251

Cluster 13

Will Seattle be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$209

Cluster 14

Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$165

Cluster 15

Will Kansas City be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$155

Cluster 16

Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$119

Cluster 17

Will Tampa Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$108

Cluster 18

Will Houston be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$83

Cluster 19

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$81

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Minnesota has roughly a 42% chance of qualifying for the NFL playoffs in the 2026-27 season. The Vikings' playoff odds are shaped primarily by their win-loss record trajectory during the regular season and their standing within the competitive NFC North division, where they compete against teams like Detroit and Green Bay. The probability will shift based on Minnesota's actual performance from August through early January, with the regular season conclusion in early January 2027 serving as the definitive catalyst that determines their final playoff seeding and qualification status. Current market prices for similar teams (Chicago at 50%, Dallas at 49%, Houston at 59%) suggest Minnesota sits in the mid-tier range of playoff contenders, reflecting moderate uncertainty about their competitive positioning.

  • Minnesota's current roster composition, coaching continuity, and preseason performance relative to division rivals
  • Their schedule strength and head-to-head matchups against other NFC playoff contenders, particularly within the NFC North
  • Injury rates among key players during the regular season, which directly impact win-loss outcomes
  • Their trading activity at the deadline and roster moves through mid-season that signal competitive commitment
  • Historic divisional playoff qualification patterns, as NFC North teams typically claim multiple playoff spots

What moved the line

  • Aug 6New York J3pp1310¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 5Kansas City3pp6360¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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