SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 25, 2027 · 215d

Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

40%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

40%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$4K

20 contracts

Closes

Jan 25, 2027

215 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 41% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 41% on 2026-06-24
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

20 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$2K

Cluster 2

Will Pittsburgh be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$2K

Cluster 3

Will Arizona be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$184

Cluster 4

Will Cleveland be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$140

Cluster 5

Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$127

Cluster 6

Will New York G be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$114

Cluster 7

Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$47

Cluster 8

Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$36

Cluster 9

Will Chicago be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$30

Cluster 10

Will Detroit be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$29

Cluster 11

Will Washington be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$25

Cluster 12

Will Carolina be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$15

Cluster 13

Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$13

Cluster 14

Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$8

Cluster 15

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will Buffalo be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Green Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$0

Cluster 19

Will Houston be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$0

Cluster 20

Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Minnesota has roughly even odds of making the NFL playoffs in the 2026-27 season. The Vikings' postseason chances depend primarily on their win-loss record this fall and whether they can compete in what appears to be a competitive NFC landscape. Key drivers include quarterback performance and health, the strength of their division rivals, and roster composition heading into the season. The resolution of this contract will come after the regular season concludes in early 2027, when playoff seeding is officially determined. Until then, week-to-week performance during the 2026 NFL season will be the primary signal affecting market expectations.

  • Minnesota's 2025 regular season record and current roster composition relative to NFC playoff contenders
  • Quarterback health and performance, particularly if key defensive or offensive contributors are available through the season
  • Competitive strength of the NFC North division, especially relative to Green Bay and Detroit performance
  • Win-loss trajectory through the 2026 season, with specific attention to games in weeks 13-18 when playoff positioning typically clarifies
  • Comparison to other teams' playoff odds, particularly teams priced between 10¢ and 31¢ like New York Giants, Carolina, and Las Vegas

What moved the line

  • Jun 22Minnesota4pp3842¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Minnesota4pp4238¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 18Las Vegas3pp1916¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22Denver3pp5754¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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