Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
168 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will New York” vs “Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York
Cluster 2
Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Dallas
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DAL
Cluster 3
Will Cleveland be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Cleveland be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Cleveland
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-CLE
Cluster 4
Will Philadelphia be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Philadelphia be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Philadelphia
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-PHI
Cluster 5
Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Miami
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-MIA
Cluster 6
Will Washington be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Washington be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Washington
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-WAS
Cluster 7
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Las Vegas
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LV
Cluster 8
Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Atlanta
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-ATL
Cluster 9
Will Arizona be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Arizona be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Arizona
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-ARI
Cluster 10
Will New Orleans be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will New Orleans be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: New Orleans
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NO
Cluster 11
Will Green Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Green Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Green Bay
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-GB
Cluster 12
Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Minnesota
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-MIN
Cluster 13
Will Seattle be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Seattle be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Seattle
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-SEA
Cluster 14
Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Cincinnati
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-CIN
Cluster 15
Will Kansas City be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Kansas City be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Kansas City
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-KC
Cluster 16
Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Indianapolis
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-IND
Cluster 17
Will Tampa Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Tampa Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Tampa Bay
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-TB
Cluster 18
Will Houston be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Houston be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Houston
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-HOU
Cluster 19
Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Denver
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Minnesota has roughly a 42% chance of qualifying for the NFL playoffs in the 2026-27 season. The Vikings' playoff odds are shaped primarily by their win-loss record trajectory during the regular season and their standing within the competitive NFC North division, where they compete against teams like Detroit and Green Bay. The probability will shift based on Minnesota's actual performance from August through early January, with the regular season conclusion in early January 2027 serving as the definitive catalyst that determines their final playoff seeding and qualification status. Current market prices for similar teams (Chicago at 50%, Dallas at 49%, Houston at 59%) suggest Minnesota sits in the mid-tier range of playoff contenders, reflecting moderate uncertainty about their competitive positioning.
- ›Minnesota's current roster composition, coaching continuity, and preseason performance relative to division rivals
- ›Their schedule strength and head-to-head matchups against other NFC playoff contenders, particularly within the NFC North
- ›Injury rates among key players during the regular season, which directly impact win-loss outcomes
- ›Their trading activity at the deadline and roster moves through mid-season that signal competitive commitment
- ›Historic divisional playoff qualification patterns, as NFC North teams typically claim multiple playoff spots
What moved the line
- Aug 6New York J↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Kansas City↓3pp63→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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