Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2027. Ryan Crosswell's nomination odds have surged 31% over the past week to 43¢, suggesting recent positive developments or increased insider confidence, though the extremely high realized volatility of 376% and 127% risk-adjusted yield indicate substantial uncertainty remains.
Analysis
Ryan Crosswell's nomination odds have surged 31% over the past week to 43¢, suggesting recent positive developments or increased insider confidence, though the extremely high realized volatility of 376% and 127% risk-adjusted yield indicate substantial uncertainty remains. The 5¢ spread and modest $8,294 open interest reflect thin liquidity typical of niche political markets, while the 3.05 volatility ratio suggests options traders are pricing in significant tail risk around the May 2027 expiration. With 398 days to resolution and an info arrival rate of 0.5 events per hour, this market appears to be pricing in meaningful probability shifts as the 2026 primary cycle develops.
Resolution rules
If Ryan Crosswell wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPA07D-26-RCRO yes 100