Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 423.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.2% on the No side, suggesting either deep skepticism that a second Alaska meeting occurs or significant mispricing given the 990-day timeframe.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 423.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.2% on the No side, suggesting either deep skepticism that a second Alaska meeting occurs or significant mispricing given the 990-day timeframe. The 8¢ bid-ask spread on a 9¢ price indicates poor liquidity ($0 in 24h volume, $1.5k open interest), making this a speculative position rather than an efficient market. The moderate 12 Cliff Risk Index and flat 7-day price action suggest the market is relatively stable, but the massive yield differential warrants caution—this could reflect genuine low probability or simply illiquidity distorting the pricing.
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in Alaska before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-AK yes 100