Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite a 298% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale quotes across a wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite a 298% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale quotes across a wide 5¢ spread. The 733% realized volatility and 4.35 vol ratio indicate violent historical price swings, while the 8 cliff risk index flags potential resolution ambiguity around what constitutes their "first meeting" post-August 2025. With nearly 1,000 days to expiry and only $2,586 open interest, this appears to be a speculative niche market where the extreme yield differential warrants skepticism about actual tradability at posted prices.
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in Hungary before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-HUN yes 100