Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $359 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $359 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 423.9% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of thin markets where small positions create distorted probability signals, especially given the binary nature of geopolitical outcomes. The sharp 7-day price movement from 1¢ to 8¢ suggests either new information about Trump-Putin diplomatic plans or minimal trading activity moving the needle significantly, warranting caution before treating this as a genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-SARA yes 100