Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—a Trump-Putin meeting in the UAE as their first encounter after an assumed August 2025 Alaska summit—at just 8¢, generating a speculative 423.9% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite near-zero trading activity ($0 in 24h volume).
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—a Trump-Putin meeting in the UAE as their first encounter after an assumed August 2025 Alaska summit—at just 8¢, generating a speculative 423.9% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite near-zero trading activity ($0 in 24h volume). The wide 5¢ spread and minimal $2,021 open interest suggest severe illiquidity, making the 8% probability potentially unreliable; the sharp cliff risk index of 12 indicates significant model uncertainty around the geopolitical assumptions underlying resolution. With nearly 3 years until expiry and a recent 1¢ price decline, this appears to be a niche political speculation market with limited market-maker conviction.
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in United Arab Emirates before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-UAE yes 100