Will PQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will PQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing October 5, 2027. The market is pricing PQ at 59% to win the 2026 Quebec election with extremely thin liquidity—just $2,638 open interest and zero 24-hour volume—making this price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
The market is pricing PQ at 59% to win the 2026 Quebec election with extremely thin liquidity—just $2,638 open interest and zero 24-hour volume—making this price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (51.3% for Yes vs. 90.2% for No) suggest the No side is significantly underpriced relative to the Yes side, indicating potential mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient depth to establish fair value. With 537 days to expiry, the modest 5-cent price rise over seven days and neutral regime score suggest this market is in early-stage discovery with limited conviction from traders.
Resolution rules
If the PQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-PQ yes 100