Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 5, 2027
409 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will CAQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election
Will CAQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?: CAQ
KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-CAQ
Cluster 2
Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election
Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?: PLQ
KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-PLQ
Cluster 3
Will PQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election
Will PQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?: PQ
KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-PQ
Analysis
This 32% probability represents the chance that the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. The current odds reflect PLQ's position as a significant but not favored contender in a competitive three-way race involving the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and Québec Solidaire (QS). The probability would likely shift based on polling trends, leadership changes, or major policy announcements from any of the three main parties. The election date itself—scheduled for October 3, 2026—represents the key event that will resolve this contract. Between now and then, federal-provincial dynamics, economic conditions, and campaign momentum could substantially move these odds.
- ›Current polling shows PLQ third or competitive second depending on methodology, with typical support ranges between 25-35% in recent surveys
- ›The CAQ, as the incumbent government, holds structural advantages but faces potential anti-incumbent sentiment after the 2022 election
- ›Québec Solidaire has mobilized younger voters and environmentally-conscious segments, potentially fragmenting the center-left vote that PLQ traditionally relied upon
- ›Leadership credibility and campaign execution will be critical; any major scandal or policy gaffe could significantly shift voter allocation
- ›The October 3, 2026 election date is fixed, making this a binary resolution event with no possibility of postponement or extension
What moved the line
- Aug 15PQ↑6pp60→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18PQ↑3pp66→69¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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