Will Elizabeth Taylor be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Elizabeth Taylor be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 5¢ spread and only $501.15 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a highly implausible outcome.

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7¢
Bid/Ask 5/7¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $1,296.58·OI $1,802.73·Closes May 30, 2026·38d remaining
KXRANKLIST1SONG-26MAY30-ELI
7-day price8 snapshots · 4 regime
10¢4¢ current
Apr 162¢Apr 20

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 5¢ spread and only $501.15 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a highly implausible outcome. The 10¢ price implies Elizabeth Taylor—who passed away in 2011—has a 10% chance of topping the Hot 100 in May 2026, likely reflecting either a novelty reissue scenario or thin-market mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The astronomical 21,331% implied yield on a Yes position and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 underscore the speculative nature and potential for sharp repricing if any relevant news emerges before the May 30 expiry.

Resolution rules

If Elizabeth Taylor is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 22762.7%
IY (No) 39.5%
Adj IY 2845%
CRI 24
Overround 0.6%
LAS 0.75
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)22762.7%
IY (No)39.5%
Adj IY2845%
CRI24
Overround0.6%
LAS0.75

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 2:25:13 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 2:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXRANKLIST1SONG-26MAY30-ELI yes 100

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