Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 25, 2026
30 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will I Knew It, I Knew You be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026
Cluster 2
Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026
Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026?: Choosin' Texas
KXRANKLIST1SONG-26JUL25-CHO
Cluster 3
Will stupid song be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026
Will stupid song be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026?: stupid song
KXRANKLIST1SONG-26JUL25-STU
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 4% chance that the song 'Choosin' Texas' reaches the number-one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during May 2026. The low probability reflects that achieving the top spot requires sustained commercial success across radio, streaming, and sales metrics simultaneously, which most releases fail to achieve. The probability would increase if the song demonstrates momentum in streaming charts, radio airplay growth, or unexpected viral popularity in the weeks leading up to chart publication dates in May. The key driver of resolution will be the Billboard Hot 100 rankings released throughout May 2026, which aggregate sales, streaming, and radio data to determine weekly chart positions. Historical chart data shows that songs typically need weeks of building popularity or major promotional events to reach number one.
- ›Current streaming and radio chart positioning of 'Choosin' Texas' as of late April 2026
- ›Whether the song's artist or label launches significant promotional campaigns or marketing pushes during May 2026
- ›Competitive landscape: the number and strength of other songs competing for the top position during May 2026
- ›Historical track record of songs by the same artist reaching or approaching top-ten chart positions
- ›Weekly Billboard Hot 100 publications throughout May 2026 showing actual chart progression and performance metrics
What moved the line
- Jun 24I Knew It, I Knew You↓40pp83→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25I Knew It, I Knew You↓23pp43→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Choosin' Texas↑20pp36→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22stupid song↓19pp22→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21I Knew It, I Knew You↑12pp60→72¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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