Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Delaware?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Delaware?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $230 open interest, making the 44¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $230 open interest, making the 44¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 85.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the No side's 48.7%, though this discrepancy may simply reflect the illiquidity rather than genuine arbitrage. With 566 days until expiry and a neutral regime, the market has ample time for price discovery, but traders should expect wide spreads and difficulty executing meaningful positions.
Also on polymarket at 43¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Michael Katz wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Delaware Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEDER-26-MKAT yes 100