Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Jersey?
Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Jersey?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extremely high implied yields (100% for Yes, 78.6% for No) relative to its 412-day time horizon, suggesting significant mispricing or uncertainty about the nomination process.
Analysis
This market shows extremely high implied yields (100% for Yes, 78.6% for No) relative to its 412-day time horizon, suggesting significant mispricing or uncertainty about the nomination process. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $1,925 open interest indicate illiquidity, making the 47¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The flat 2-cent price movement over seven days combined with neutral regime conditions suggests the market lacks conviction, and traders should be cautious about the reliability of this thin market's pricing.
Also on polymarket at 46¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
If Alex Zdan wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Jersey Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATENJR-26-AZDA yes 100