What is the current probability for "Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on September 29, 2028. 892 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 42.6% and 39.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing September 29, 2028. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $106 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 49/51¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $106·Closes Sep 29, 2028·892d remaining

KXSLOVAKIAPARLI-27-PS

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $106 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 2¢ spread and neutral regime suggest minimal conviction, while the 42.4% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the 897-day timeframe and low activity. With nearly three years until resolution and a stalled price at 49¢ over the past week, this market lacks the trading depth needed for confident probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If the winner of the next Slovak parliamentary election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is Coalition including PS, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 42.6%

IY (No) 39.3%

Adj IY 21%

CRI 1

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	42.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	21%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:30:57 PM

Observability lowEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSLOVAKIAPARLI-27-PS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →