Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the No side offering 728.2% implied yield versus 323.7% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or market skepticism about the 10-19.99% band despite the 61¢ Yes price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the No side offering 728.2% implied yield versus 323.7% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or market skepticism about the 10-19.99% band despite the 61¢ Yes price. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $2,062.69 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The recent 5-cent price decline over seven days combined with 75 days to expiration and low cliff risk (2) suggests the market may be gradually repricing downward, though the extreme yield spread warrants caution before treating this as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from Canada into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 10 to 19.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-14 yes 100