Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 88% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Between 10% and 19.99%
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Between 50% and 60%
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$8
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between
Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 10% and 19.99%
KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-14
Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 50% and 60%
KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-55
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Canadian import tariffs will settle in the 30-40% range by July 1, 2026. The 59% probability for the 10-20% bracket (the leading outcome) suggests markets view lower tariff rates as more likely than mid-range ones, with only 13% assigned to rates of 40% or higher. The current level reflects uncertainty about administration trade policy direction and negotiation outcomes with Canada. The key driver is ongoing trade negotiations and any policy announcements between now and late June. Resolution occurs automatically on July 1 when actual tariff rates are published by U.S. trade authorities. Market pricing across related contracts shows traders expect lower tariff bands to be more probable across multiple trading partners, suggesting a baseline assumption of moderation rather than extreme escalation.
- ›The leading market price of 59% is assigned to 10-20% tariffs on Canadian imports, not the 30-40% bracket in this question
- ›Related contracts show 65-75% market probability for 10-20% tariffs on China, EU, and India imports, indicating broad expectation of lower-range outcomes
- ›Tariff rates will be determined by official U.S. government action and published on or before July 1, 2026—no discretion or ambiguity in resolution
- ›Only $492-$241 in 24-hour volume on similar EU and China contracts suggests relatively thin market liquidity and potentially volatile repricing
- ›The 13% probability assigned to tariffs above 40% indicates markets view extreme escalation as unlikely despite historical trade policy volatility
What moved the line
- Jun 18Between 10% and 19.99%↑7pp77→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Between 10% and 19.99%↑3pp84→87¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%Above 2.6%last 86% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (88% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In recession
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.