Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $575 open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $575 open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The astronomical 15,697.7% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe mispricing or that traders view a 60%+ tariff on Canadian imports as virtually impossible, though the moderate 32 Cliff Risk Index indicates some tail-risk concern as the July 2026 resolution date approaches. With 75 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to serve as a reliable probability signal.
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from Canada into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is above 60%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-30 yes 100