Top Coding AI this month?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Top Coding AI this month?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 64,864.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues GLM's chances of topping the LM Code Arena Leaderboard by month-end.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 64,864.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues GLM's chances of topping the LM Code Arena Leaderboard by month-end. The flat 7-day price action despite thin liquidity ($4.2k daily volume) and a tight 4¢ spread indicates minimal recent conviction, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index warns of potential sharp moves as the April 30 expiry approaches in just 14 days. The asymmetric yields (64,864.9% vs 112.6%) and zero risk-adjusted return suggest this is either a mispriced long opportunity or reflects genuine uncertainty about GLM's competitive positioning that the market hasn't yet repriced.
Resolution rules
If GLM is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Apr 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26APR30-GLM yes 100