Top Coding AI this month?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Top Coding AI this month?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3¢ spread.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3¢ spread. The astronomical 50,458% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either extreme mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient capital to establish a fair valuation for Kimi becoming the top coding AI within 14 days. The high Cliff Risk Index of 19 combined with neutral regime conditions indicates significant uncertainty around the April 30 resolution date, warranting caution before treating this price as a genuine probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Kimi is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Apr 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26APR30-KIMI yes 100