Top Coding AI this month?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Top Coding AI this month?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $405 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3¢ spread.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $405 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3¢ spread. The astronomical 35,907% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either extreme mispricing or that traders view a Qwen leaderboard victory as nearly impossible, though the 14-day window to April 30th expiration leaves room for late movement. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 indicates significant binary outcome risk, warranting caution on any position given the thin market depth.
Resolution rules
If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Apr 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26APR30-QWEN yes 100