Will Chappell Roan be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Chappell Roan be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the da.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2686% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe undervaluation at 5¢ given Chappell Roan's current trajectory as a breakout artist.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2686% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe undervaluation at 5¢ given Chappell Roan's current trajectory as a breakout artist. The $0 24-hour volume and $401 open interest indicate dangerously low liquidity, making the 6¢ spread potentially misleading and creating cliff risk (score of 19) if positions need to be exited before year-end 2026. The neutral regime and 258-day timeframe provide adequate runway for resolution, but the extreme yield asymmetry combined with illiquidity suggests this price reflects a thin market rather than true probability consensus.
Resolution rules
If Chappell Roan is the #2 most streamed Artist on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-CHA yes 100