Will Taylor Swift be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will Taylor Swift be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the dat.... This contract trades at 45¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,135 open interest, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,135 open interest, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The 212.1% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated relative to the 258-day timeframe, suggesting the market may be mispriced due to thin trading rather than genuine conviction that Swift finishes exactly second globally. With a 6¢ spread and low cliff risk (2.0), this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded contract, warranting caution before treating the probability as market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Taylor Swift is the #2 most streamed Artist on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-TAY yes 100