What is the current probability for "Will there be more than 300 tornadoes in April?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will there be more than 300 tornadoes in April?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 1367.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will there be more than 300 tornadoes in April?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will there be more than 300 tornadoes in April?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will there be more than 300 tornadoes in April?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 9/10¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,818.97·OI $5,664.42·Closes May 1, 2026·3d remaining

KXTORNADO-26APR-300

7-day price357 snapshots · 43 regime

81¢9¢ current

Apr 232¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Apr is above 300 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 1367.4%

Adj IY 88890%

CRI 10

RV 4098%

VR 3.44

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1367.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	88890%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4098%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.44	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.11	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/28/2026, 12:30:55 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 12:38:08 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTORNADO-26APR-300 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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