What is the current probability for "Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in May?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 92¢ (92% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2026. 34 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in May?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 785.7% and 1498.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in May?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in May?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in May?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026.

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92¢

Bid/Ask 58/93¢·Spread 35¢·Vol $34·OI $77.71·Closes Jun 1, 2026·34d remaining

KXTORNADO-26MAY-200

7-day price31 snapshots · 6 regime

92¢58¢ current

Apr 2025¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in May is above 200 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 785.7%

IY (No) 1498.4%

Adj IY 1498%

CRI 1

RV 1154%

VR 4.87

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	785.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1498.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1498%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1154%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.87	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

35¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 12:40:57 PM

Observability directEvent type weather

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 12:38:08 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTORNADO-26MAY-200 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

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