Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward pressure over the past week, dropping from 82¢ to 89¢ (note: this appears contradictory in the data provided), suggesting recent skepticism about exceeding 10 Atlantic hurricanes despite the current 89% Yes price.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure over the past week, dropping from 82¢ to 89¢ (note: this appears contradictory in the data provided), suggesting recent skepticism about exceeding 10 Atlantic hurricanes despite the current 89% Yes price. The 238.9% implied yield on the No side is exceptionally high relative to the 106.2% Yes yield, indicating the market may be underpricing tail risk or that contrarian bettors see asymmetric value in betting against the consensus. With only $281.78 in open interest and a 28¢ spread on Kalshi, liquidity is thin, making the 89¢ price potentially vulnerable to larger orders, and the 229-day timeframe provides ample opportunity for market repricing as the 2026 hurricane season approaches.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 10 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T10 yes 100