Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026
Leader sits at 47% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 10
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Above 12
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$51
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 2, 2026
100 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 10
KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T10
Will there be more than 20 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 20
KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T20
Will there be more than 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 18
KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18
Will there be more than 16 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 16
KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16
Will there be more than 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 14
KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T14
Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 12
KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T12
Analysis
The 22% probability reflects traders' assessment that 2026 will see more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes, with the leading contract at 42% suggesting most traders expect 10–12 hurricanes. Atlantic hurricane frequency depends on sea-surface temperatures, atmospheric wind shear, and other climate conditions that typically peak in late summer and autumn. The 2026 season will resolve through the National Hurricane Center's official count, recorded as storms reach hurricane strength. Current pricing suggests traders see a roughly one-in-five chance of exceeding the 12-hurricane threshold, compared to historical averages. The resolution date arrives in late November 2026 when the official Atlantic hurricane season ends, though most uncertainty will narrow significantly by October as the peak months conclude and actual storm counts become clearer.
- ›Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic basin through September–October 2026 will be a primary driver; warmer conditions typically favor more hurricane formation
- ›Atmospheric wind shear patterns during peak season months (August–October) directly suppress or enable hurricane development and intensification
- ›The official count from the National Hurricane Center provides the only authoritative resolution; storms must reach sustained winds of 74 mph to be classified as hurricanes
- ›Historical Atlantic hurricane frequency averages 7–8 per season, making 12+ storms a notably above-average outcome reflected in the lower probability
- ›As of late August 2026, two months of the peak season remain, allowing significant revision to seasonal forecasts as actual storms form and meteorological conditions evolve
What moved the line
- Aug 17Above 10↓16pp61→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above 12↑12pp25→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 12↓10pp34→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 16↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 10↓4pp44→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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