Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing in a 92% probability of exceeding 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, reflecting elevated climate expectations, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (55.9% for Yes versus 453.2% for No) signal that the No position offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 227%.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 92% probability of exceeding 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, reflecting elevated climate expectations, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (55.9% for Yes versus 453.2% for No) signal that the No position offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 227%. The sharp 34-cent price rally over seven days combined with thin liquidity ($381.72 open interest, $321.80 daily volume) and an 18-cent spread suggests this move may be driven by limited order flow rather than fundamental conviction, warranting caution on the sustainability of the current pricing.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 12 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T12 yes 100