Will Donald Trump meet in person Ahmed al-Sharaa before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Donald Trump meet in person Ahmed al-Sharaa before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 59¢ price reflects moderate conviction in a Trump-al-Sharaa meeting within 26 months, though the exceptionally high implied yields (115% for Yes, 171.8% for No) signal thin liquidity with only $1,900 open interest and minimal $60 daily volume.
Analysis
The 59¢ price reflects moderate conviction in a Trump-al-Sharaa meeting within 26 months, though the exceptionally high implied yields (115% for Yes, 171.8% for No) signal thin liquidity with only $1,900 open interest and minimal $60 daily volume. The market has drifted down 5¢ over the past week despite al-Sharaa's recent prominence in Syrian politics, suggesting either skepticism about near-term diplomatic engagement or uncertainty around Trump's 2024 election outcome and foreign policy priorities.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NAALS yes 100