Will Donald Trump meet in person Pope Leo XIV before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 90% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mark Carney
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Sam Altman
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$215
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump meet in person
Will Donald Trump meet in person Nicolás Maduro before Jan 1, 2027?: Nicolás Maduro
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NNMAD
Will Donald Trump meet in person Kim Jong Un before Jan 1, 2027?: Kim Jong Un
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NKJU
Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NVPUT
Will Donald Trump meet in person Bill Clinton before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Clinton
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-BCLI
Will Donald Trump meet in person Pope Leo XIV before Jan 1, 2027?: Pope Leo XIV
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NPXIV
Will Donald Trump meet in person Recep Tayyip Erdoğan before Jan 1, 2027?: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-RERD
Will Donald Trump meet in person Sam Altman before Jan 1, 2027?: Sam Altman
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NSALT
Will Donald Trump meet in person Peter Thiel before Jan 1, 2027?: Peter Thiel
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NPTHI
Will Donald Trump meet in person Mark Zuckerberg before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NMZUC
Will Donald Trump meet in person Marjorie Taylor Greene before Jan 1, 2027?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NMTG
Will Donald Trump meet in person Mark Carney before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Carney
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NMCAR
Will Donald Trump meet in person Mohammed bin Salman before Jan 1, 2027?: Mohammed bin Salman
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NMBS
Will Donald Trump meet in person Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027?: Jerome Powell
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NJPOW
Will Donald Trump meet in person Claudia Sheinbaum before Jan 1, 2027?: Claudia Sheinbaum
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NCSHE
Will Donald Trump meet in person Ahmed al-Sharaa before Jan 1, 2027?: Ahmed al-Sharaa
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NAALS
Will Donald Trump meet in person Lai Ching-te before Jan 1, 2027?: Lai Ching-te
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-LCHI
Will Donald Trump meet in person Tim Walz before Jan 1, 2027?: Tim Walz
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-DJTTWAL
Will Donald Trump meet in person Reza Pahlavi before Jan 1, 2027?: Reza Pahlavi
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-DJTRPAH
Will Donald Trump meet in person Gavin Newsom before Jan 1, 2027?: Gavin Newsom
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-DJTGNEW
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Donald Trump will meet Pope Leo XIV in person before January 1, 2027—roughly 8 months from now. The 93% probability reflects that market participants view an in-person papal meeting as highly likely within this timeframe. The main drivers are Trump's diplomatic schedule, papal availability, and logistical feasibility of arranging a Vatican visit. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents often meet popes during their terms, though scheduling depends on both parties' travel plans and diplomatic priorities. The biggest catalyst would be any announced papal or presidential trip to Rome, or public statements about planned meetings. Conversely, the probability could shift if Trump's international travel becomes constrained or if diplomatic tensions affect scheduling.
- ›Trump's current status as former president (not sitting president) may reduce the likelihood of a formal Vatican state visit compared to his 2017-2021 tenure
- ›Pope Leo XIV's age and health status directly affects capacity to receive visitors and hold audiences
- ›Scheduled diplomatic travel by Trump or papal events in 2026 would be observable leading indicators of meeting feasibility
- ›Vatican scheduling practices typically require weeks of advance planning; any announced meeting would likely become public within months
- ›Historical frequency: U.S. presidents have met popes regularly, but retired presidents meet them less often than sitting executives
What moved the line
- Jun 3Recep Tayyip Erdoğan↑22pp67→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Mark Zuckerberg↓11pp76→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Lai Ching-te↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Sam Altman↑7pp83→90¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Vladimir Putin↓4pp45→41¢ · Kalshi
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- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 3d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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